El Niño forecast 2026: What NOAA's latest update means for summer
Experts give El Niño conditions a 62 percent chance of emerging later this year.
www.newsweek.comHere are the latest publicly reported indications on El Niño in 2026:
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NOAA/CPC updates suggest El Niño is likely to emerge mid-2026, with a strong probability by June–August 2026 and possible continuation into 2026. This aligns with multiple recent forecasts and discussions from meteorological agencies .
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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other regional agencies have reiterated rising odds of El Niño developing from mid-2026, driven by shifting equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures and changing atmospheric patterns. They also note expected global temperature and rainfall pattern changes in the multi-month outlook .
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Some research and forecasting summaries point to a potentially intense El Niño (including possibilities of a “strong” or even “super” El Niño) later in 2026 due to unusual warming patterns in spring 2026 and accumulated warm water in the Pacific, though such outcomes carry scientific uncertainty and depend on model assumptions .
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Regional implications commonly discussed in forecasts include warmer global temperatures, increased risk of heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of the Americas (notably the southern U.S. and parts of Central America) and drought risk in other regions, with rainfall and temperature impacts varying by hemisphere and season .[5]
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Official advisories: CPC/NOAA and UN-affiliated climate communications have highlighted the likelihood of El Niño conditions forming mid-2026, with attention to spring predictability barriers and the regional NAO/phasing impacts that can influence European winter conditions .[9]
Illustrative snapshot:
- If El Niño develops as forecast, expect a warmer-than-average Northern Hemisphere winter in 2026–27, with elevated global temperatures and a higher chance of extreme weather events in various regions depending on local climate factors. This is consistent with multiple predictive updates from major meteorological bodies in early to mid-2026 .[6]
If you want, I can compile a concise timeline with the key forecast windows (May–July neutral, June–August emergence, potential duration through 2026–27) and list regional impact expectations by month. I can also pull the most recent CPC ENSO Advisory for precise wording and probability estimates.