Thomas Massie Election Odds | ElectionOdds
Live prediction market odds for Thomas Massie (Republican). 38% on "Thomas Massie, 0-5%" — 8 markets tracked.
electionodds.liveLatest reporting suggests Thomas Massie’s chances in Kentucky’s GOP primary have moved around quickly across prediction markets and polling—with a noticeable late shift against him heading into election day.
What the latest numbers say (prediction markets)
- Kalshi (April 26): Traders priced Massie’s primary-win probability at 72%, with Ed Gallrein at 29%.[1]
- Newsweek (May 18, “eve of election day”): Massie’s odds dropped to about 42% on Polymarket (and the piece also cites higher figures for Gallrein on both Kalshi/Polymarket).[2]
What’s driving the odds shift
- Newsweek links the late movement to recent allegations and broader volatility typical of high-spend, intraparty primaries (Massie denied the allegation mentioned).[2]
Need the exact odds for “election odds”?
If you tell me which race you mean, I can summarize the correct market(s):
- Kentucky’s 4th District GOP primary (Massie vs. Ed Gallrein), or
- a different election (e.g., general-election odds / Senate bid / etc.).
Which one are you asking about?